An early lead isn’t a victory. Half the precincts reporting doesn’t necessarily mean half the votes are counted. And a news organization calling a race doesn’t make the results official.
Those distinctions can get lost when election results begin filling television screens and social media feeds.
Ahead of Tuesday’s election, KPRC 2 gave Harris County voters a pop quiz about what those numbers actually mean.
“Which results usually show up first on election night?”
“I don’t know the answer. I’m sorry,” one voter responded.
“You mean like the exit polls?” another asked.
A third worked through the question aloud.
“I guess like the all the early voting because they still have to count everything else, right?”
Understanding what has been counted — and what remains outstanding — can help voters make sense of election night without jumping to conclusions.
Steven David, who analyzes Harris County voter turnout data, helped explain what to watch for.
David said Harris County’s first results release is expected to include early in-person votes and mail ballots that have been processed and are ready to report.
Election Day results follow as voting locations finish their work and the county receives and verifies their returns, he said.
That means the first numbers on your screen represent a particular group of voters. They are not a random sample of everyone who will participate.
David said the work behind those releases begins well before viewers see the totals.
“It’s a labor of love by all of those folks,” he said. “They’re going to be working around the clock to make sure that ballot boxes are secured and transported into a safe location.”
David said the early vote’s share of overall turnout could help determine how quickly some races become clear.
“If you look at 2024, which this is looking like a presidential year, like that, 75% of the vote came from early voting. Only 25% came from Election Day,” he said. “So if that’s true, if that is the case for next Tuesday, we’ll be able to call a ton of races really quickly.”
His prediction depends on both how much of the vote is reported early and how large the candidates’ leads are.
Turnout figures released before Election Day show how many people have participated. They do not reveal which candidates those voters selected.
David said a voter’s participation in a party primary can offer analysts clues about voting patterns, but it does not establish how that person voted in the general election.
“But folks like me can go and pull down that data and then make reasonable assumptions,” he said.
Those assumptions are not a substitute for actual election results.
Different groups of voters can make different choices. As additional results arrive, the overall picture can change.
“So people can start ahead and then fall behind. Because you can’t predict how people are going to vote, and because you can’t predict how people are going to vote, you can only rely on the information that you have,” David said.
“Early voting tends to skew for Democrats. Election Day voting tends to skew for Republicans. So those first releases are going to show big Democrat numbers, but it’ll normalize once Election Day turnout comes back in.”
David said Democrats will be looking for an early advantage large enough to withstand later returns, while Republicans who are trailing will need enough support from the remaining voters to close the gap.
A candidate could perform well among early voters, while an opponent does better among people who vote on Election Day. In David’s analysis, the order in which those results are reported can make a lead grow, shrink or change hands.
Geography matters, too, he said. If results from areas favoring one candidate arrive before results from areas favoring another, the first totals can give an incomplete picture.
“So if you count, for whatever reason, 50% of those precincts are counted are heavily Republican, it’ll look like the Republicans in the lead, whereas it could be the opposite direction for the Democrats,” he said. “So it’s really difficult to base calling an election off of which precincts are in.”
In David’s analysis, the key is not simply who leads first, but how many votes remain and how those voters ultimately cast their ballots.
A changing lead, by itself, is not evidence that something has gone wrong. The useful questions are: Which votes have been reported, where did they come from, and what remains?
No.
When KPRC 2 posed that question, one voter explained the distinction.
“That just means that you have half of whatever the precincts you have, not necessarily the votes,” she said.
Asked for a simple explanation, David described precincts reporting in terms of returns arriving and being counted.
“So precincts reporting means how many of the of the thousand or so precincts have returned their ballot boxes and they’ve been counted,” he said.
David said precincts do not all have the same number of voters, so the percentage reporting should not be confused with the percentage of ballots counted.
“All precincts are cut up differently,” he said.
Think of two checkout lines: One has two people, and the other has 20. Finishing one line means half the lines are done—but not half the people.
The same principle applies to election results. How many ballots remain—and where they’re from—helps explain whether a candidate’s lead could change.
In Harris County, there is another distinction: A voter’s home precinct and the vote center where that person casts a ballot are not necessarily the same thing since voters could cast a ballot at any of the 75 early voting locations.
Read the reporting label and its explanation carefully. A percentage of precincts or locations reporting should not automatically be treated as the percentage of all ballots counted.
A race call is a news organization’s determination of the winner based on its analysis of reported results and outstanding votes.
Decision teams consider more than who is ahead. They examine the size of the lead, how many votes remain, where those votes are coming from and whether the trailing candidate has a path to victory.
Some races become clear quickly. Others remain too close to call.
David said a large early-vote lead can be difficult to overcome.
“But there is math that sits behind it. At some point it becomes an insurmountable lead, like there’s no Election Day turnout that could offset the two weeks of early voting,” he said.
His analysis depends on the size of that lead and the votes still outstanding. An early lead alone does not establish a winner.
Think of three separate stages:
- Leading: A candidate has more votes in the results reported so far.
- Race called: A news organization’s analysis identifies the winner.
- Official results: Election authorities complete the required review and formal approval process.
David emphasized that election night totals are unofficial, even when the winner appears clear.
“And every vote has to be counted by law. And that includes provisional ballots. That includes overseas ballots. That includes mail-in ballots, military folks voting,” he said.
Those ballots must meet the applicable eligibility and deadline requirements to count.
Officials still must reconcile records, resolve eligible provisional ballots, account for qualifying mail ballots received within applicable deadlines and complete other required checks.
“So there is the unofficial ballot results, the unofficial voting results. And that’s going to be the stuff that the county puts together and says all precincts are counted. This is the vote. This is the way that it worked,” David said.
The formal canvass is the review and adoption of election returns by the responsible authority. Certification documents the official outcome through the required process. County and statewide steps can occur on different schedules.
A news organization’s race call does not replace any of that work.
Polls closing does not mean every result is ready to publish.
As David explained, voters already in line at closing time still must be allowed to vote. Election workers then have closing procedures, secure materials and returns, and complete the steps needed to report results.
David said the logistics of collecting and reporting results across Harris County help explain why voters may have to wait.
“It’s a very big, laborious effort, and so the logistics behind it are difficult,” he said. “People get very frustrated. Candidates and politicos all get super frustrated when they say, well, when are we going to be able to call it?”
David also noted that ballots requiring additional review or arriving within applicable deadlines can affect the final count. Close races may depend on eligible ballots that cannot be resolved on election night.
Finishing Election Day reporting and completing the final official count are different milestones. Officials should explain what remains outstanding and when the next update is expected.
For Harris County races, David recommends starting with the county’s official Harris Votes website at HarrisVotes.com and selecting election results.
“They produce their results first at the county, and then they send it to the secretary of state. So the secretary of state gets a little bit of a delay with that,” he said.
For statewide races and districts that cross county lines, David recommends the Texas secretary of state’s election results website.
He cautioned that a single county’s totals may show only part of a congressional, legislative or other multicounty race.
“And so you can’t just rely on one county. That’s why going to the Secretary of State for those races is probably your best bet,” he said.
Be sure to follow Click2Houston.com for election coverage and explanations as results develop.
Before drawing a conclusion from any update, check its timestamp, whether the results are unofficial and what votes remain unreported.
